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Spring crops development in the European part of Russia and southern regions of West Siberia in 2018

Loupian E.A., Bartalev S.A., Krasheninnikova Yu. S., Tolpin V.A., Burtsev M.A.

// Actual Problems of Remote Sensing of the Earth from Space, 2018. Vol. 15. No. 3. P. 275-281.

May  and  June  2018  have  brought  serious  anomalies  in  spring  crops  development  in  the  European  part  of  Russia  and  southern  regions  of  West  Siberia  that  are  analyzed  in  this  paper.  It  is  shown  that  a  considerable  number  of  croplands  with  spring  crops  have  more  than  15  %  worse  NDVI  compared  to the «normal» (long-time average annual) by the end of week 24 of 2018 (June 17). During the season, in the European areas of Russia spring crops have slightly deteriorated, in contrast to West Siberia (e.g. the Altai Territory) where they have slightly improved. The causes of the phenomena observed are different  for  the  different  regions.  The  European  part  of  Russia  suffered  from  poor  precipitation  and  lack  of  water  which  caused  NDVI  decline.  An  example  of  such  scenario  is  shown  for  the  Republic  of  Crimea and Volgograd region: dynamics of NDVI, cumulative precipitation and temperature for spring croplands  are  depicted.  The  worst  situation  is  observed  in  the  Republic  of  Crimea.  The  current  state  tends to show spring crops bad condition, expected reduction of yields and possible partial crop failure. The situation for the south-eastern regions of West Siberia is determined by other causes, shown by the examples of Novosibirsk Region and Altai Territory. In these regions, the anomaly is caused by spring crops development delay due to late sowing following heavy precipitation, significantly heavier than the long-time average annual, during the past months. It is noted that the development delays of the spring crops may not affect the expected yields and crop failure probability. In summary, it is emphasized that crops development deviation from “normal” dynamics can have different causes and consequences in different regions and thorough analysis of both remote sensing and meteorological data for the region is  required  for  correct  estimation  of  current  state  and  potential  impact.  It  is  demonstrated  that  such  analysis can be conducted using the Vega-Science (http://sci-vega.ru/) information system.

Full version URL: http://d33.infospace.ru/d33_conf/sb2018t3/275-281.pdf
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